2026 Midterms
Projected control
If every race broke the way it currently leans. Each seat is called from polling where it exists, then prediction markets, then how the state voted in 2024.
U.S. Senate
51 to control
Democratic
Republican
Democratic control by 5 seats · 3 independents
35 of 100 seats are on the ballot. The other 65 are held by senators not up for election this cycle and are counted at their current party.
10 seats within reach
- Nebraska Senate0.0
- Kansas Senate+0.9
- Maine Senate+1.8
- Iowa Senate+2.1
- South Dakota Senate+2.3
- South Carolina Senate+2.5
- Ohio Senate+2.7
- Michigan Senate+2.9
- Texas Senate+2.9
- Minnesota Senate+4.2
U.S. House
218 to control
Democratic
Republican
Republican control by 43 seats
All 435 seats are contested every two years, so nothing is carried over.
20 seats within reach
- AL-20.0
- MT-1+0.2
- FL-27+0.6
- KY-6+0.8
- FL-13+0.8
- WI-2-0.9
- WI-4-0.9
- WI-5-0.9
- WI-7-0.9
- WI-8-0.9
- NV-2+1.2
- FL-22+1.3
- MI-1-1.4
- MI-2-1.4
- MI-3-1.4
- MI-5-1.4
- MI-6-1.4
- MI-8-1.4
- MI-9-1.4
- MI-10-1.4
What this is, and isn't
It is a seat count: for every race we ask who is ahead right now and add up the answers.
It is not a forecast. It carries no probability of control, no simulations, and no assumption that polling errors are correlated across states — which historically they are. A one-seat projected majority should be read as a coin flip, not a prediction.
Most House seats are never polled, so many are called from markets or from the 2024 presidential result. Those are weaker evidence than polling and are counted separately below each bar.
State legislatures
Not yet covered. State legislative races are polled so rarely, and the chambers are so numerous — 99 of them across 50 states — that any projection would be built almost entirely from the 2024 presidential result. That would look like data while carrying almost none, so it is left out until there is something real to show.